Orain dela lau urte:
Orain dela egun batzuk:
https://www.unibertsitatea.net/blogak/heterodoxia/2015/01/02/syrizaz-eta-greziaz-hitz-batzuk/
eta
https://www.unibertsitatea.net/blogak/heterodoxia/2015/01/02/5845/
Hyper ortodoxiak oraintxe:
http://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/merkel-prepared-to-let-greece-exit-eurozone-report/ar-BBhul5b
Hortaz,
Zer geratzen zaigu europar paradisutik, non Troika nagusia den, non austeritatea gaurko mezu eta fede nagusia den, non ortodoxia ekonomikoak ez dauka ezer onik esatekorik, non benetako terrorismoa ekonomikoa eguneroko bazka den, non ekonomialariek, politikariek eta kazetariek (baita EH zafratu honetan ere) terrorismo ekonomiko hori babesten, zabaltzen eta laudatzen duten?
Ondorio zuzena eta argia biharko: DTM-tik kanpo ez dago inongo irtenbiderik.
https://www.unibertsitatea.net/blogak/heterodoxia/2014/10/10/dtm-warren-mosler/
https://www.unibertsitatea.net/blogak/heterodoxia/2013/04/07/mosler-ekonomia/
joseba says:
Bill Mitchell: Germany should be careful what it ‘allows’
http://bilbo.economicoutlook.net/blog/?p=29864
““Contrary to its previous position, the Federal Government is prepared to let Greece withdraw from the eurozone if necessary”. (…)
“Prepared to let” – which makes the German government sound as if it is the gatekeeper, the ruler of Europe and that sort of arrogance lies behind much of the problems that Europe now finds itself entrenched in.
The hypothesis in the article is that the Germans smugly consider the Eurozone is now ‘safe’ from breakup and so Greece is expendable.”
“…what would happen if Greece was sensible enough to exit?
First, there would be some short-term chaos. But one can hardly imagine it getting worse than it already is.
Second, the new exchange rate would likely depreciate somewhat if the example of Argentina in 2002 and Iceland, more recently is anything to go by. There would be a tourist boom within 12 months.
Third, the government freed of neo-liberal austerity Groupthink (and that is an essential condition to ensure that exit would be beneficial in net terms) could stimulate domestic demand immediately.
It would have its own currency back, could instruct its own central bank to fund the rising fiscal deficit, and it could introduce mass job creation schemes which would underpin a private spending revival within 2 quarters (think Argentina in 2002-03).
Greece would return to fairly robust growth rates fairly quickly and prove the point that austerity creates stagnation and currency sovereignty provides opportunities.
What would France and Italy, which are both still heading into stagnation themselves, think of all of that? The next French national election is likely to be a showdown between the conservatives and the ultra right, with the Socialists pushed into the nether world of irrelevance, given how bad their performance has been.
Would these large Euro nations tolerate the sort of internal devaluation that has been forced onto Greece by the Troika? I doubt it. Italy is less politically stable than France but there are tolerance limits in both political systems and I cannot imagine the populations buying into the Troika-style solution to the fiscal parameters that the monetary union rules demand.
These nations would observe that a freed up Greece, with the exchange rate able to absorb the external imbalances, was in much less pain than before. They would also soon realise that not having that exchange rate and currency flexibility was the reason for their own domestic pain.
There would be an ineluctable pressure on them to join the freedom train. I think Germany is underestimating that attraction by overestimating the net costs of exit on Greece.”
Conclusion
The ECB meets on January 22, 2015 to decide on QE. The outcome will be largely a sideshow although it will dominate press headlines in the days following.
Just until the Greek election a few days later. Then we will see what Syriza is made of. But then the actual dynamic will come from the Germans, who seem to think Greece is now expendable.
They will ‘allow’ Greece to exit at their own peril though because just like Argentina showed in 2002, Greece will become the anti-euro poster nation and Italians and the French will be watching jealousy as robust growth returns.
Remember this: Greece – two alternative views (http://bilbo.economicoutlook.net/blog/?p=29778).
joseba says:
WSJ Praises the “Triumph of Austerity” in Greece:
http://therealnews.com/t2/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=31&Itemid=74&jumival=12966
Video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gE1LFEyvEcs#t=11
(See Transcript.)
“(…)
PERIES: Now, does the Greek government have the money to spend, given the economic crisis they’ve been in? And they’ve borrowed so much money from the European Central Bank. Do they actually have the money for public spending of this nature?
BLACK: Okay. So, first, they’re not allowed to spend. And so there is this wonderfully oxymoronic title, the Stability and Growth Pact, in Europe, which forbids governments to spend really substantially when you’re in a crisis like this, to do the things that we’ve known for 75 years will dramatically reduce the human suffering, will reduce the length and severity of the crisis. And so this thing produces instability and it destroys growth, and they of course call it the Stability and Growth Pact.
Now, that was done to the Europeans by the Europeans so they could get rid of that at any given time.
You are correct that Greece, because, like the other Eurozone nations, gave up its sovereign currency when it joined the euro, that there are more problems in a place like Greece than in, say, the United States and the United Kingdom in using normal stimulus spending. But it is possible, and the European Central Bank can make it possible. They simply refuse to do so, because the Germans insist there is no alternative–TINA–that austerity is the only thing that can be permitted.
And so this is the economic equivalent of bleeding a patient. And when that doesn’t make them healthier, you bleed ’em some more. And it has caused immense suffering, completely gratuitous, in Greece and in Spain and in Italy, both of which also have Great Depression levels of unemployment that, again, have lasted longer than the actual thing that we call a Great Depression. (…)”
“PERIES: Bill, does SYRIZA have a plan of how they’re planning to manage the economy and how they might actually consider exiting the euro and, yeah, using the euro as currency?
BLACK: Well, their official position is that they don’t want to leave the euro. The decision whether to leave the euro at this juncture is complex. And there’s no good answer, right? All the answers involve severe pain. They should have never joined the euro. But they have, and they’re now somewhat stuck with it. (…)”
joseba says:
J. E. Stiglitz. Europe’s Lapse of Reason:
http://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/european-union-austerity-backlash-by-joseph-e–stiglitz-2015-01
“… The EU’s malaise is self-inflicted, owing to an unprecedented succession of bad economic decisions, beginning with the creation of the euro. Though intended to unite Europe, in the end the euro has divided it; and, in the absence of the political will to create the institutions that would enable a single currency to work, the damage is not being undone.”
“The issue is not Greece. It is Europe. If Europe does not change its ways – if it does not reform the eurozone and repeal austerity – a popular backlash will become inevitable.”