1) Grexit

Zertan datzan¹.

2) Grezia eta Syriza: aurretik dakiguna

Z plana².

3) 2015eko Grexit-i buruzko jarrerak eta eztabaidak

3-a) EB eta Grezia: biak garaile?³

“The threat of a ‘Grexit’- a scenario in which Greece leaves the eurozone- has been on the rise since the new Syriza government won the general election in late January.

(…)

If Greece doesn’t accept what the EU offers – high interest loans – it will have to leave the euro and print its own currency to support Greek banks in desperate need of liquidity.

“It will create short-term volatility in the marketplace… this is the beginning of something better for Greece and Europe,” Jakobsen said.”

3-b) Der Spiegel-en Grexit dilema⁴

“Banks across Europe, including the European Central Bank, are preparing for the possibility of Greece leaving the euro zone. With Athens and Brussels still at odds, such an eventuality seems more realistic than ever. But how disruptive would a Grexit really be?On Wednesday of this week, 30 top managers at a large German bank all received a text message and an email at the exact same time. A short time later, their mobile phones rang with an automated voice giving them all passwords and a number to call at exactly 8:30 a.m. to join a teleconference with the board of directors.

The communication blast was the initial step of the bank’s emergency “Grexit” plan, a strategy laid out in a document dozens of pages long detailing exactly how managers should react in the event that Greece leaves the euro zone.

Each of the 30 bank managers were required to work through the emergency measures pertaining to his or her division. Information was to be transferred to the supervisory board and public officials were likewise to be kept informed as was the German Finance Ministry. The plan also called for large investors to be put at ease. Questions pertaining to potential bank losses from Greek bond holdings were to be addressed as were changes in monetary transactions with Greece once it was no longer part of the common currency zone.

The response also extended to internal bank communication, with instructions to employees for dealing with the new situation posted in the financial institution’s intranet. Customers and stake holders were also to be kept informed.

At exactly 6 p.m., the crisis came to an end, as did the work day. Plan “Grexit” was just a dry run, nothing more. At least not yet.

Such scenarios are being acted out across Europe these days as companies, banks and governments all prepare for the kind of worst case scenario that isn’t even addressed in euro-zone statutes: the exit of one of the common currency area’s member states.”

(…)

“The only other option would appear to be Greece’s departure from the common currency union, the possible effects of which both sides are busily calculating. What would abandoning the euro do to the Greek economy? How high would the costs be for the euro zone? What would be the political consequences were Athens to turn away from Europe?

The European Central Bank (ECB) is also preparing for a possible Grexit. Officials are busily performing internal simulations to determine how the rest of the euro zone could be kept together if Greece goes. ECB officials believe that chances of a Greek exit have increased in recent days and, despite their strenuous denials, are urging Athens to finally implement capital controls in order to stem ongoing capital flight. Every day, Greeks are sending in excess of a billion euros abroad, the ECB believes.”

4) Paul Krugman⁵

“(…)

5. Ideals aside, … Grexit — the often speculated about, never so far materializing Greek exit from the euro — becomes a very real possibility if European creditors try to exert leverage by taking away the safety net for Greek banks.

6. And if Greece really does leave the euro — if it turns out that the single currency is not irreversible — do you really think there would be no contagion? Wanna bet on it?

7. In particular, think about what happens if Greece leaves the euro and then manages to find its footing — which it probably would after a chaotic year or two. The EU could prevent that by deliberately undermining the post-euro Greek economy. But that would be a betrayal of European principles.”

5) Warren Mosler

Aspaldiko lanak: Eurogunetik irteteko estrategia⁶

Italiarako ikus Returning to the Lira⁷

6) Bill Mitchell

2015eko lanak⁸.

7) Alemania ez da fidatzen Greziaren promesez⁹

“No payments will be made to Athens unless Greek govt meets its commitments in full.”

8) Dudak berriz Grezian¹⁰

“… even Syriza officials admitted, “it is difficult to determine how the government can fulfill its promises, including the debt write-off, with this agreement,”as doubts arise across Europe’s policymakers…”

Beraz?

Grexit in four months?

Grezia eurogunetik irtetea lau hilabete barru?

1 Oinarrizko sarrera. Grexit: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greek_withdrawal_from_the_eurozone.

2 Ikus Z plana: istorioa eta historia: https://www.unibertsitatea.net/blogak/heterodoxia/2014/05/27/z-plana-istorioa-eta-historia/.

3 Ikus Grexit: Win for both EU and Greece?: http://rt.com/business/233459-grexit-eu-euro-saxo/.

4 Ikus The Grexit Dilemma: What Would Happen if Greece Leaves the Euro Zone?: http://www.spiegel.de/international/europe/what-a-grexit-would-mean-for-greece-and-for-europe-a-1019542.html.

5 Ikus Thinking About the New Greek Crisis: http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2015/01/28/thinking-about-the-new-greek-crisis/?_r=3.

6. Ikus Nola irten eurogunetik? Proposamena:https://www.unibertsitatea.net/blogak/heterodoxia/2011/07/12/nola-irten-eurogunetik-proposamena/;

Eurogunetik irteteko estrategia: https://www.unibertsitatea.net/blogak/heterodoxia/2011/12/21/eurogunetik-irteteko-estrategia/

eta

Warren Mosler: Greziaz berriz: https://www.unibertsitatea.net/blogak/heterodoxia/2012/02/23/warren-mosler-greziaz-berriz/.