Hasteko, ikus Troika? Ez aipatu arren!(1)1.
Bill Mitchell-ek gogoratzen digu Greziako gobernuak sinaturiko ‘dokumentua2:
“The document says that the Greek government will:
Ensure that its fight against the humanitarian crisis has no negative fiscal effect.
What exactly is a “negative fiscal effect”. Well, for you etymologists, it is neo-liberal Groupthink speak for increasing the fiscal deficit.”
Are gehiago3…
Galbraith-ek dioenez, bere artikuluan4…
Baina…:
“… the reforms offered and now agreed to are not conditional on any EIB activity.5“
Behar dena hauxe da:
“A massive fiscal intervention is needed even though we know that the potential growth path of the economy is significantly lower than it was pre-crisis.”
Finantza Ministro Varoufakis-ek, aldiz, hauxe dio:
“… a Eurozone breakup would destroy the European Union, except perhaps in name” which would pose a “global danger”.”
Mitchell ez dago ados aipaturiko baieztapen horrekin6, ezta Varoufakis-ek Grexit delakoaz dioena ere.
Grexit dela eta, hona hemen irakurri ohi dena:
“… is a common claim…That the currency will depreciate so much it will wipe out any real prosperity as a result of the devalued savings (expressed in drachma).
It have considered the claim that a new Greek currency would significantly depreciate against the euro once issued previously.”
Alta, hona Mitchell-en hitzak:
“Why would that happen? Foreign exchange parities are determined by supply and demand.
Who would be issuing the new Drachma? Answer: Only one institution – the Greek government via the central bank.
What is the current volume (supply) of new Drachma in the foreign exchange markets? Answer: zero – it doesn’t exist.
If the Greek government restricted its supply but were able to require people to demand it – to pay taxes etc – then why would the currency depreciate violently in the period after issue?7”
Lehen ondorioak:
“The basic conclusion is that it is hard to see how a proposal that involves no fiscal transfers or changes to the Treaty can provide a lasting solution to the mess.
The modesty of the proposal is its shortcoming. It will not solve the inherent problems within the Eurozone, which are defined by the very political constraints that the authors recognise force them to adopt these ‘modest’ proposals, in lieu of more effective and lasting solutions.”
Afera argi dago:
“The political constraints they identify include those that prevent the ECB from funding governments directly, the inability to issue euro-bonds, the impasse over the creation of a “properly functioning federal transfer union”; and the time delays that would be involved in activating any Treaty changes, once agreed.”
Gehigarria:
Warren Mosler-ek hauxe dio, Mitchell-en artikuluari egindako iruzkinetan:
Bill, glad to see we’re in good company on the collaboration issue!
(Segituko du)
2 Ikus Don’t mention the war! er the Troika…: http://bilbo.economicoutlook.net/blog/?p=30293.
3 Ingelesez: “… the Greek plan which includes a commitment to run a primary fiscal surplus this year of 1.5 per cent (that is, surplus net of interest income paid out) apparently isbased on their belief that a massive fiscal stimulus is going to come from the European Investment Bank (EIB) which will end austerity by boosting growth and employment.
It is like a massive export income boost or a federal injection to a state.”
4 Ingelesez: “There is no money in Greece; the government is bankrupt. Large-scale Keynesian policies were never on the table as they would necessarily imply exit – an expansionary policy in a new currency, with all the usual dangers. Inside the Euro, investment funds have to come from better tax collection, or from the outside, including private investors and the European Investment Bank.
Which is true.”
5 Gainera: “Trying to exploit different propensities to consume among different taxpaying cohorts is not going to provide sufficient spending capacity in Greece to dent the crisis much less solve it.”
6 Ingelesez: “I disagree with those assertions and my forthcoming book tells you why.
You can read the book text as it was written in unedited form via this link – Euro Book. [http://bilbo.economicoutlook.net/blog/?p=27666].
I do not consider an exit to be a disastrous option. For example, the Finance Minister wrote in 2012 a critique – Weisbrot and Krugman are Wrong: Greece cannot pull off an Argentina – who both advocated an exit.”
7 Hauxe gaineratuz: “You are thinking (like most people) of an existing tradable currency that is unpegged or something like that. Then the depreciation can be sudden because there is a lot of supply.
A significant exchange rate depreciation of the new drachma in the short-term given the fact that supply would be limited. The examples often used, such as Iceland and Argentina, all relate to currencies that were already supplied in volumes to the foreign exchange markets.”
