Kapitulazioaren atarian? (1)

joseba
| 2015-04-22

1) Fartsaren azken urratsak (2015.04.22ra arte):

Greek Negotiator “Shocks” Eurozone Officials, Behaves Like “Taxi Driver”: Hope Of Greek Deal “Blown”1

“We Have Come To The End Of The Road” – Greece Prepares For Default, FT Reports2

Greek Bonds Tumble, Yield Highest In 2 Years On Report Germany Prepares For Greek Default3

German FinMin Schaeuble Sees “No Contagion” From Grexit, Don’t Show Him This Chart4

Comprehending Any Greek Headline (In 1 Simple Venn Diagram)5

The Weak Suffer What They Must: Yanis And The End Of Europe6

“Bonds Don’t Bring Breakups, Banks Do”; UBS Says Europe Risks Bank Runs On Grexit7

Greek Bonds Tumble On News IMF Rejected “Unofficial” Greek Request To Delay Payment8

For Greece All Bets Are (Literally) Off: Bookie Closes Grexit Market9

Meanwhile, In Greece — Live Feed10

Yanis Varoufakis Speaks On “The Greek Economy And Its Global Partners” – Live Webcast11

The REAL Issue With a Grexit/ Greek Default12

Greek Bank “Quarantine” Abroad Sparks European Selloff13

Grexit Lives As “Deluded” Forecasters Predict The Unpredictable14

The IMF Admits The IMF’s Forecast Of Blockbuster Greek GDP Growth May Be A Little High15

Is May 9 The Grexit Date?16

The Greek “White Knight” Emerges: Putin To Give Athens €5 Billion For Advance Gas Pipeline Fees17

Greece’s creditors said to seek ways to prevent euro exit18

Despite Urges And Threats, Greece Remains Defiant, Won’t “Budge On Red Lines” Even As Russia Denies Gas Deal19

Draghi Tells Euro Shorts To “Make His Day”, Again20

Did Greece Just Launch Capital Controls: “Mandatory Cash Transfer” Decreed Due To “Extremely Urgent Need”21Greek Debt Crisis Coming To Head – Contagion?22

Not good…Greek PM Tsipras orders local governments to move their funds to central bank23

David Einhorn Is “Adding More Shorts”, Has A Question For Mario Draghi24

Stunned Greeks React To Initial Capital Controls And The “Decree To Confiscate Reserves”, And They Are Not Happy25

Following “Soft” Capital Controls, ECB Threatens Greece With ELA Cut Even As 1 Million Workers Go Unpaid For Months26

White House Refutes European Complacency: Warns Grexit Threatens Global Economic Recovery27

Greece May Sign Russia Gas Deal As Soon As Today28

ECB Prepares To Sacrifice Greek Banks With 50% Collateral Haircut29

2) ‘Irtenbide’ bereziak

Greece May Pay Wages And Pensions In IOUs30

The ECB Is Considering A Parallel Greek Currency31

Greek Parallel Currency: How to Do it Properly32

3) Iritziak

3-a) Warren Mosler: Greece comment

Ikus Seinale erosi? Apostua?33

“… the legislation does not allow that a country that has a default … can be expelled from the euro,…”

3-b) Bill Mitchell, Paul Krugman, Grezia : Stocks and Flows Paul Krugman34

Krugman Grezian egon da (2015.04.19) eta bisita horretaz idatzi du: Notes on Greece, non Troikak inposaturiko neurrien ondorioak aipatzen dituen.

Haren ondorioan honelakoak dira: Grezia hobe egongo zatekeen baldin eta 2010ean eurogunetik irten izan balitz. Grezian askoz hobe egongo zatekeen baldin eta inoiz sartu izan ez balitz eurogunean. Baina orain Greziak negoziatu dezake nolabaiteko konpromisoa austeritatea gelditu ahal izateko35.

Mitchell ez dago ados azken baieztapen horrekin.

Lehendabizi, Mitchell Sunk costs delakoarekin aritzen da, mikroekonomian zer aipatzen den analizatuz eta, oro har, ortodoxiak zer dioen kritikatuz36.

Geroago, Krugman kritikatzen du, batez ere isuri kostu dramatikoei loturiko ‘stock’ masiboak direla eta37. Kasurako ‘stock’ adierazgarri bat langabezia da (2014an % 26, 5 zena)38.

Ekonomialari australiarrak dioenez, erabakia enplegu osoaren ingurukoa izan behako litzateke39. Eta langabeziaren ‘stocka’ urtetan egongo da baldin eta Greziako gobernuak ekonomia egonkortzen badu eurogunearen arauen barruan40.

Krugman-ek pentsa lezake egonkortasun horrek ez lituzkeela ekarriko galera handiak, baina “… the intergenerational damage of the high youth unemployment is going to cause massive costs for decades to come unless it is eliminated quickly.”

Nahiz eta gobernuak konpromiso bat negoziatu (“compromise … that pauses further austerity”), ez da gauza izango langabezia handi hori eta berari lotuta dagoen kaltea alderantziz oso arin jartzeko.

Greziak behar duena pizgarri fiskal masiboa da, eta sekulako lan publikoko programa martxan jartzea lan berme batekin, job guarantee delakoarekin, hasiera eder bat izango litzateke.

Hori ezin da gauzatu gaur egungo euroguneko arauekin, eta ez dago inolako seinalerik neurri horiek laster aldatuko direnik.

Mitchell-ek dioenez, bera konturatzen da Surizako politikariek, eta Paul Krugman eta James Galbraith bezalako iritzi emaileek argudiatzen dutela Greziak oparotasuna berriz eratu dezakeela eta Growth Stability Pact izenekoaren neurri barruan egotea, “… as long as the – European Investment Bank – provides a huge funding boost to Greece for infrastructure development.”

Baina posibletasun hori oso txikia da. Lekukoa Europar komisioak esandakoa41.

Hortaz, Mitchell-en ustez,

“So I think Paul Krugman needs to rethink his position before pronouncing that Greece is now better off within the Eurozone given it cannot hardly be bashed any harder than it has.”

Grexit ala ez?

“There would be huge costs involved in exiting the monetary union. But I still consider they would be less than the on-going costs of the massive entrenched unemployment pool, especially the youth unemployment.”

Kapitulazioaren atarian egon daiteke Syriza…

34 In Finland – more austerity is not the answer: http://bilbo.economicoutlook.net/blog/?p=30697 .

35 Hona hemen Krugman-n hitzak: “You can make a pretty good case that the costs of this adjustment were so large that Greece would have been better off exiting the euro in 2010. You can make an even better case that Greece would have been much better off if it had never joined in the first place. But at this point these are sunk costs. If Greece can negotiate a halfway reasonable compromise, one that more or less pauses further austerity, it’s hard to see that the risks of exit would be worth it.”

36 Mitchell-en hitzak: “Sunk costs are defined by economists as “a cost that has already been incurred and cannot be recovered”.

The relevance of sunk costs in microeconomics is that they should be disregarded when making decisions about future investment expenditure because they are gone for good and will not affect the future costs that might be incurred.This mainstream view is challenged by behavioural studies which suggest that in the real world humans do not act in a ‘rational’ way as defined by economists because they are concerned about other issues (loss aversion) and are subject to cognitive biases.”

37 Ingelesez: “While the adjustments costs – lost output and income never to be regained – might be considered in the class of sunk costs – and so there is nothing you can do about it now, there are still massive stocks associated with these dramatic flow costs (the lost income and spending) remaining.”

38 Ingelesez: “For example, a most relevant ‘stock’ is the mass unemployment, which is at 26.5 per cent (2014), the highest in the Eurozone. It doesn’t matter that the nation has vandalised its prosperity by getting the primary fiscal balance back into surplus and is therefore according to Krugman’s logic operating within the rules of the Eurozone.”

39 Ingelesez: “The decision as to the nation’s status within the Eurozone should be made on the basis of which option will get it back to full employment in the shortest possible time without compromising human rights and maintaining the job protections etc.”

40 Ingelesez: “Sure enough, Greece has been bashed into a sorry state by the Troika bullies and one might think it couldn’t get any worse. But the stock of unemployment, for example, will linger for years to come if the Greek government stabilises the economy within the rules of the Eurozone.”

41 Ingelesez: “The infrastructure package announced by the new European Commission boss when he took over in January 2015 was pitiful compared to the scale of the problem the policy elites have created through austerity.”

Iruzkinak (1)

  • joseba
    joseba says:

    Eurogroup head, Jeroen Dijsselbloem says deal with Greece in few weeks time. No chance of Grexit

    http://redpilltimes.com/eurogroup-head-jeroen-dijsselbloem-says-deal-with-greece-in-few-weeks-time-no-chance-of-grexit/

    A Greek exit from the Eurozone is not an option said Eurogroup head Jeroen Dijsselbloem.

    Jeroen Dijsselbloem…
    ‘A Grexit scenario will lead to a dangerous situation in Greece and in all of Europe.’

    As such, Dijsselbloem is counting on a deal with Greece by the end of April.

    The head of the Eurogroup specifically stated that Greece and its creditors will finally come to a new agreement in the coming weeks.

    Dijsselbloem also noted that Greece needs to honor its obligations to all payments it has committed itself too, if it wishes to remain in the Eurozone…adding that a Greek exit from the Eurozone is not an option.

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