Eurogunea: zenbait ikasgai Terzi-ren bidez (eta iii)

joseba
| 2016-05-02

Andrea Terzi-ren hiru lan interesgarri dugu aztergai.

(Segida)

Hasteko, ikus Eurogunea: zenbait ikasgai Terzi-ren bidez (i)1 eta Eurogunea: zenbait ikasgai Terzi-ren bidez (ii)2

(c) A T-shirt model of savings, debt and private spending: lessons for the euro area3

A. Terzi-ren lan hau aipatu dugu hurrengo lanetan:

Draghi-k ez du ezer ikasi! (2)

Draghi-ren politika monetarioaren (QE) itxaropenak, gabeziak eta ondorioak

EBZ, Draghi, tasa negatiboak eta politika fiskala

Zer gertatzen da gero? Jadanik ikusia…

(Gogoratu ondoko hau ere: Draghi-k ez du ezer ikasi…)

Twitterrak:

Andrea Terzi ‏@ndrea_terzi mar. 6

The belief that you can create jobs without creating new debt underscores a serious conceptual fault (forthcoming)

Andrea Terzi(r)i erantzunez

Warren B. Mosler ‏@wbmosler mar. 6

@ndrea_terzi Yes!!!

Andrea Terzi ‏@ndrea_terzi

@andreavicini @wbmosler I agree innovation and employment can go together. And real growth needs financial conditions: filled saving desires

Warren B. Mosler ‏@wbmosler mar. 15

@ndrea_terzi @andreavicini Innovation is highly beneficial but not a tool that reduces unemloyment

Andrea Terzi ‏@ndrea_terzi mar. 15

@andreavicini @wbmosler Innovation creates jobs when fueled by demand: Saving desires must be matched by deficit spending. Savings = Debt

Warren B. Mosler ‏@wbmosler

@ndrea_terzi And to your point the distinction between creating jobs and reducing unemployment is most often overlooked.

– 2016 mar. 15

Orain Terzi-ren lana bera daukagu analizatzeko4.

Caveat: jatorrizko lana lortzeko, dolar gehiegi ordaindu behar direnez, lan horren ordez, ondoko bi lan aztertuko ditugu:

(a) A. Terzi-ren lana: European fiscal rules violate the savings-debt constraint5

(b) A. Terzi: A T-shirt model of savings, debt, and private spending6

Terzi-k berak dionez, aipaturiko bigarren lantxo horretan azaltzen den modeloan ikus daiteke argumentu edo argudioaren logika.

Argumentu edo argudioa hauxe da: eurogunean gobernuaren maila guztietan aurrekontu orekatuak derrigortzen diren bitartean, eurogunea ez da izango jasangarria.

Hona hemen, beraz, aipaturiko azken lan horretan azaltzen diren punturik garrantzitsuenak:

(a) Sektore pribatuak aktibo finantzarioak (aberastasuna gordetzeko ibilgailu gisa) eskatzen baditu, suposatu behar da (sektore pribatuen) gastuak aurrezkien desioetan oinarritzen dela7

(b) Intuizioak dioenez, aktibo finantzario eskuragarrien balioa stocka baino handiagoa baldin bada, gastuak handituko dira, eta alderantziz

(c) Terzi-ren modeloan, nahi den aktibo finantzarioen stocka emandako datutzat hartzen da8

(d) Egoiliar pribatuek dauzkaten aktibo finantzario eskuragarrien balio nominalak betebeharreko pasibo guztien suma berdindu behar du, barne sektore pribatu egoiliar, barneko sektore publiko eta atzerritar sektoreak jaulkitutakoak9

(e) Sektore pribatuak ez badu nahi bere zorra areagotzea, gastuen handitze bat soilik esportazio netoen areagotze baten edo gobernu defizitaren areagotze baten ondorio bat izan daiteke10

Hortaz, Trezi-ren hitzez,

(i) Barneko sektore publikoaren areagotzea finantzen aldetik bideragarria da, baldin eta EBZ-k bera sustengatzen badu eta ekonomikoki desiragarria da, baldin eta langabezia altua mantentzen bada

Alta,

(ii) Atzerritar sektorearen areagotzea zaila izango da nahiko handia errenta hazkunde nominala berrezartzearren, atzerritar aktiboetan arriskua areagotuz, euroa atzerritar eskari baldintzen menpe jarriz, eta ekonomikoki ez da desiragarria11

Beraz, aipatu bezala:

“The belief that you can create jobs without creating new debt underscores a serious conceptual fault”

4 Ikus 3. oharra.

7 Ingelesez: “In a monetary economy where the private sector demands financial assets as a vehicle to store wealth (aka ‘financial savings’), spending (by the private sector) can be assumed to depend on saving desires. Specifically, in any given period of reference, the change in total spending (ΔE) is a function (α) of the difference between the available stock of financial assets (FA) and the desired stock of financial savings (Fad): eq1“

8 Ingelesez: “In this simple model, FAd (= the desired stock of financial savings) is taken as a given:eq2

9 Ingelesez: “The nominal value of available financial assets to private residents must equal the sum of all liabilities outstanding, including those issued by the private resident sector (DP), the domestic public sector (DG), and the foreign sector (DF). DP is the outstanding value of private debt. DG is the oustanding value of public debt. DF is the net position with foreigners (when positive, it is the value of residents’ claims on foreign entities). This means:eq3

10 Ingelesez: “This model explains spending with saving desires (FAd) and the available stock of financial assets (FA) which depends on the existing liabilities issued by private, public, and foreign entities.

Thus, an increase in spending requires that:eq4

Taking the desired stock of financial savings (FAd) as given, when the private sector is unwilling to expand its debt (DP), an increase in spending can only be the outcome of an increase in net exports (DF), or an increase in government deficit (DG).”

11 Ingelesez: “While an increase in DG is financially viable as long as the ECB supports it, and it is also economically desirable as long as unemployment remains high, an increase in DF can hardly be large enough to restore nominal income growth, entails rising risk on foreign assets, makes the euro area dependent on foreign demand conditions, and is not economically desirable as net exports reduce the output per capita below what the economy can produce.”

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