Italia (eta Euskal Herria ere) bidegurutzean

1 Ikus http://www.economonitor.com/blog/2016/08/italy-at-the-brink-from-renzis-referendum-to-italexit/.

2 Ingelesez: “Renzi’s rise and fall – or rise?

Renzi needs wins. In local elections last June, the PD was beaten in key municipalities by the M5S and center-right parties, including the NL. In Rome, Renzi’s candidate for mayor was defeated by M5S’s lawyer Virginia Raggi who ran on an anti-establishment platform, pledging to fight corruption. The message reverberated in Italy’s capital where Gianni Alemanno, mayor until 2013, remains on trial for corruption and the Mafia Capitale scandal confirmed organized crime’s foothold in municipal services. While Renzi acknowledged PD’s defeat, he refused to resign leadership in the party and has staked his political future on the constitutional referendum in October.

Italians are sympathetic to the idea of streamlining politics in the Eurozone’s third-largest economy in which a gridlocked legislature and unstable governments sustain a seemingly endless ping-pond between the two chambers of parliament. If Renzi loses his referendum, he will resign from the role of the prime minister and the PD’s leadership. That, in turn, would end the post-Berlusconi period of relative stability in Italy, while paving way to ‘Italexit’ – an Italian referendum on the EU.

(…) In reality, Renzi’s political capital could collapse in October, which would effectively nullify his reform program. In turn, the eclipse of Renzi’s reforms could herald Italy’s next sovereign downgrade, which could foster a perception about the ECB’s quantitative exhaustion.”

3 Ingelesez: “A post-Renzi Italy

The 5-Star Movement, the Northern League, and the center-right opposition party Forza Italia strongly oppose the October referendum, which they call undemocratic and favorable to the incumbent PD.

(…)

Currently, the Eurosceptic M5S enjoys 30.6% support in polls, as against the ruling PD’s 29.8%, whereas the support of the far-right NL has declined to less than 13%. The M5S can no longer be ignored as anti-establishment voice founded by comedian Beppe Grillo. Almost every third Italian is behind it. Concurrently, Luigi Di Maio, the deputy speaker of the parliament, has become the most likely figure to lead the party at the next general election. While he remains critical of Brussels, he believes that the EU is now used as a scapegoat for the weaknesses of Italy’s domestic politics.

Renzi wants structural reforms, EU integration and US cooperation. Despite its Euroscepticism, the M5S supports EU membership, but also national referendum on the euro. Salvini wants political power, exit from the euro and Euro-skeptic cooperation with Russia. Whatever the outcome of the October referendum, it will be preceded by the Italian banking debacle.

In turn, both Brussels and Berlin know only too well that if they support Renzi too much, they risk losing the support of EU integrationists. But if they don’t support Renzi enough, they risk losing Italy.

After the Brexit threat, Brussels cannot afford Italexit.”

4 Ingelesez: “The Financial Times recently put it this way:

An Italian exit from the single currency would trigger the total collapse of the eurozone within a very short period. It would probably lead to the most violent economic shock in history, dwarfing the Lehman Brothers bankruptcy in 2008 and the 1929 Wall Street crash.

If the FT is even partially right, it means we’re looking at a possible stock market crash of historic proportions. It could devastate anyone with a brokerage account. But it could also present enormous opportunities to profit.”

5 Ingelesez: “But as Doug has shown throughout his storied career, the worst crises offer the biggest opportunities for gains. That’s why our video describes specific ways to profit… as well as which stocks to avoid before the crucial December date.”

9 Gogoratu:”

“Andrea Terzi ‏@ndrea_terzi

Draghi unusually offguard could have answerd: ECB is monopolist of euro, can’t run out of money, money is not wealth

(…) ECB can’t run out of money: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Xda78gNm72o

Berriz:

“… why not let ECB create debt free digital cash so that the society can pay off their the debts the banks created from nothing?”

10 Ikus https://www.unibertsitatea.net/otarrea/gizarte-zientziak/ekonomia/dtm-lau-eskematan-euroa-eta-lira.

11 Ikus https://www.unibertsitatea.net/otarrea/gizarte-zientziak/ekonomia/ongi-etorri-euskoa.