Sarrera gisa, ikus Warren Mosler-en kreditu kontrola (4)
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Credit check1
From bad to worse at the end of q2, increasing odds of a downside surprise for q2 gdp:
7 comments2:
- Michael Norman said…
- Warren keeps posting this stuff, but nominal credit outstanding in nearly all cases is at record levels and growing. It’s just that the growth rate has slowed.
- July 8, 2017 at 7:56 AM
- Warren Mosler said…
- Yes
Spending growth has to keep up with ‘unspent income’ growth for GDP growth.
Last year’s gdp growth was supported by last years growth of ‘borrowing to spend’
so if that support is reduced GDP is that much lower from that source of spending.One unanswerable question is how much of that borrowing growth was for spending (on goods and services) and how much was just ‘adding to savings’ etc. That is, I don’t know the propensity to spend of the growth of credit. But it does seem that bank credit expansion is running maybe 40 billion/mo less than last year.And agreed this can be called ‘monetarism’ as loans create deposits, etc. with the larger point being deficit spending, private or public, is what offsets unspent income, etc. - Matt Franko said…
- They could also just be slightly discounting the NPV of their existing loan assets in response to the .75 increase in the risk free rate since December…
- Matt Franko said…
- http://people.stern.nyu.edu/adamodar/pdfiles/papers/riskfreerate.pdf
- Warren Mosler said…
- Hi Matt,
Unless there’s been a recent change banks carry their performing loans at book value.
- Matt Franko said…
- I’ll try to check into it Warren.
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